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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would serve as assurances matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.