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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet the latest field is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions falling away and recent also-rans rising in unison. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a given after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still