A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
